Track Current 2005 Hurricanes or Any History Hurricane

Recommended Hurricane Supplies
 

Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons.

This early April forecast is based on a newly devised extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past global reanalysis data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due to a continued Atlantic Ocean warming and a belief that significant El Niño conditions for this summer/fall are now less likely. If the next few months verify this supposition, it is probable that we will be further raising our 31 May and 5 August seasonal forecast numbers. Conditions in the Atlantic are very favorable for an active hurricane season.

Recommended Hurricane Supplies