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BEST HURRICANE KIT FOR

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Hurricane Florida Season 2009

Experts hurricane forecast, predict 2 intense storms

Hurricane prediction: 6 hurricanes and 12 named storms!

 April 7, 2009

 

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach foresee an average hurricane season, with 8 major hurricanes an 12 named storms. They predict two of the 2009 hurricanes will be very intense, with winds greater than 110 mph. In December, the Colorado State University climatologists predicted the 2009 season would see 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, 3 intense. They say, the main reason for softening thee forecast:
 
"They think La Niña, an major atmospheric condition that fosters hurricane storm formation, will weaken or even fade."

 

They said it is possible El Niño, which hampers 2009 hurricane developments, might emerge.

"If 2009 El Niño conditions develop for this year's 2009 hurricane season, it would tend to increase levels of vertical wind shear and greatly decrease levels of Atlantic Florida hurricane activity," Gray said.

Gray and Klotzbach also noted that water sea surface temperatures in the tropical Florida Atlantic have cooled somewhat, making 2009 Florida hurricane storm formation less conducive.

 

New: Miami Cycling Challenge

Gray and Klotzbach put the chance of a major 2009 Florida hurricane striking the U.S. coastline at 55%, compared with an average probability of 53 percent.

2009 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

The 2009 Florida Hurricane season starts June 1 2009 and runs through Nov. 30 2009.


PDF 2009 Hurricane Forecast


2009 Hurricane Forecast for Florida Texas and Louisiana

Florida Hurricane team scales back 2009 hurricane forecast

Group expects 12 named hurricanes during 2009 'average' season

BY JIM WAYMER
FLORIDA TODAY

The nation's best-known 2009 seasonal hurricane forecast team predicts a dozen named storms, six of those hurricanes -- two with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

Cooling in the tropical Atlantic and a warming Pacific pulse should make for an "average" hurricane season, William Gray's team from Colorado State University said Tuesday.

 

Florida 2009 Hurricane season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.

 

William Gray's Florida 2009 hurricane team anticipates the current weak La Nina conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps to a weak El Nino by this year's 2009 hurricane season.

The El Nino is a pulse of warmer-than-usual water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The large pulse results in winds that shear tropical systems apart before they can become hurricanes.

 

La Nina, the opposite cycle of cooler water near the equator in the Pacific, tends to allow more 2009  hurricanes to form because fewer of those shearing winds occur.

 

  • The probability of a Florida, Texas U.S. East Coast landfall, including Florida, is 33 percent, compared with the 32 percent average for past century.
  • William Gray's team says a 2009 cycle of ocean hurricane salinity in the North Atlantic that spans multiple decades and greatly impacts large-scale ocean currents and temperatures will continue to drive increased 2009 hurricane forecast activity for years to come.

    "This active 2009 cycle is expected to continue for another decade or 2 at which time we should enter a quieter Florida Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the earlier quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925," the report said.

 

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Atlantic Florida Hurricane Forecast Names
 
2007 Hurricane Names: Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Felix Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Noel Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

2008 Hurricane Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2009 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

2010 Hurricane Names: Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

2011 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

2012 Hurricane Names: Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Felix Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Noel Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

2013 Hurricane Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2014 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

2015 Hurricane Names: Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

2016 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

2017 Hurricane Names: Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Felix Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Noel Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

2018 Hurricane Names: Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gustav Hanna Ike Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paloma Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred

2019 Hurricane Names: Ana Bill Claudette Danny Erika Fred Grace Henri Ida Joaquin Kate Larry Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda

2020 Hurricane Names: Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter

2021 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William

2006 Hurricane Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William


More Detailed 2008 Florida Hurricane Forecast Information (PDF)

Pacific Hurricane Names


2006 Hurricane Names:Aletta Bud Carlotta Daniel Emilia Fabio Gilma Hector Ileana John Kristy Lane Miriam Norman Olivia Paul Rosa Sergio Tara Vicente Willa Xavier Yolanda Zeke


2007 Hurricane Names:Alvin Barbara Cosme Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo Juliette Kiko Lorena Manuel Narda Octave Priscilla Raymond Sonia Tico Velma Wallis Xina York Zelda


2008 Hurricane Names:Alma Boris Cristina Douglas Elida Fausto Genevieve Hernan Iselle Julio Karina Lowell Marie Norbert Odile Polo Rachel Simon Trudy Vance Winnie Xavier Yolanda Zeke


2009 Hurricane Names:Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique Felicia Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda


2010 Hurricane Names:Agatha Blas Celia Darby Estelle Frank Georgette Howard Isis Javier Kay Lester Madeline Newton Orlene Paine Roslyn Seymour Tina Virgil Winifred Xavier Yolanda Zeke

 


More Detailed 2008 Florida Hurricane Forecast Information (PDF)

Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storm Records

  • Earliest tropical storm formed: Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978, through January 23, 1978, 45 mph. Excluding this subtropical storm, the Groundhog Day Tropical Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952 with 50 mph winds was the earliest formed in a calendar year.
  • Earliest Hurricane formed in a calendar year: March 6, 1908 Hurricane
  • Earliest Category 3+ hurricane : Hurricane Able, May 15, 1951 (In May/June 1825 there was a major hurricane also, but there is less information available about it due to the records of the time.)
  • Earliest hurricane in existence in a calendar year: Hurricane Alice, January 1-6, 80mpg 1955 (and December 31, 1954), formed the previous year. The earliest tropical storm was Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005-2006 (see below)
  • Latest tropical storm formed: Tropical Storm Zeta, 11am AST, December 30, 2005. Previous, Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954.
  • Latest hurricane formed: Hurricane Alice 1am EST, December 30, 1954. The only two cross-season storms on record are Hurricane Alice in 1954-1955 and Tropical Storm Zeta 2005-2006 (See below).
  • Latest hurricane in existence from previous year: Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955, January 6, 1955 (see Tropical Storm Zeta, January 6, 2006 for the latest Tropical Storm in existence)
  • Strongest (most intense) hurricane: Hurricane Wilma 2005, 882 millibars (mb) (the previous most intense hurricane was Hurricane Gilbert 1988 at 888 mb)
  • Strongest land-falling United States Hurricane: Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, 160mph 892 mbar
  • Longest lived hurricane :Hurricane San Ciriaco, August 1899 (28 days), Hurricane Ginger September 1971 (27.25 days), Hurricane Inga September 1969, 24.75 days, Hurricane Kyle September 2002, 22 days, Hurricane Carrie, September 1957 & Hurricane Inez September 1966 (20.75 days).
  • Longest Category 5 hurricane: Hurricane Allen, 1980, reached Category 5 status on 3 occasions (Ivan and Isabel did the same, but Allen lasted longer). Hurricane Dog 1950 2.50 days; Hurricane Isabel 2003, Hurricane David 1979, Hurricane Mitch 1998 all 1.75 days.
  • Most storms per season: 28 in 2005 season (revised upward by 1 April 2006) (previous: 21 named storms in 1933).
  • Fewest storms per season (since 1965): 1983 4 storms; 1965, 1977, 1982, 1986, 6 storms; 1972, 1987, 1992, 1994, 7 storms
  • What happens if they run out of names? The Greek alphabet is used: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, eta, theta,iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu xi, omikron, pi, rho, sigma,tau,upsilon,phi, chi, psi, omega.
  • When do they start with the following season's names? January 1 of the year, not June 1st when the Atlantic hurricane season begins or May 15th for the Pacific hurricane season. However storms that overlap from one calendar year into another are not renamed.
  • Strongest January hurricane: Hurricane Alice, January 1955, 80 mph winds (peak January 2, 1955) (The naming is a story in itself since it became a tropical storm Dec 30, 1954 but advisories weren't issued until January 1955, so it was given the name Alice, which made it the second Alice for 1954 - at that time names were re-used each year), December 30, 1954-January 6, 1955. Tropical Storm Zeta December 30, 2005-January 6, 2006. Subtropical Storm One, January 18, 1978 45 mph winds is the only storm formed in January.
  • Strongest February tropical storm: Groundhog Day Storm of 1952 February 2, 1952-February 3, 1952, 50 mph
  • Strongest March hurricane: March 6, 1908 Hurricane, category 2 storm.
  • Strongest April tropical storm: Ana 2003 (the only April storm in fact), April 20-April 24, 60 mph winds, 994 mb
  • Strongest May hurricane:Hurricane Able 1951 (Category 3), 1908 Hurricane (Category ?), Alma 1970 (Cat 1), Tropical Storm 1933, May 15, 1887 (70mph) & May 17, 1887 (60 mph), earliest two storms active at once. Tropical Storm One, May 22, 1948 (50mph). Tropical Storm One, May 19, 1940.
  • Strongest June hurricane: Hurricane Audrey, June 25-29, 1957 (145mph, 946 mbar) (see also Alma 1966, 130 mph, 970 mbar and Agnes June 14-25, 1972 did a lot of damage, 85mph, 977 mbar)
  • Strongest July hurricane: Emily, 2005 (161 mph top sustained winds - earliest recorded category 5 hurricane) (previous record: Dennis (150 mph) 2005; Hurricane #1 (140 mph) in 1926.
  • Strongest August hurricane: Allen 1980 899 mbar, 190 mph (see also Katrina, 2005 175 mph sustained winds, 902 mbar; Hurricane Camille, August 1969, 190 mph, 905 mbar; Andrew, August 1992, 175mph, 922 mbar)
  • Strongest September hurricane: Gilbert, 185 mph, 888 mbar, (see Rita, 2005 175 mph, 897 mbar; Hurricane Janet, 1955, 175mph 914 mb)
  • Strongest October hurricane: Wilma 2005, 175 mph, 882 mbar. Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded.
  • Strongest November hurricane: Lenny, 1999, November 13-23. 155 mph, 933 mbar. Also notable for its eastward motion. Tied with Michelle in 2001 based on central pressure of 933 mbar, 140 mph wind.
  • Strongest December hurricane: 1925 Hurricane, December 4, 1925, (100mph); see Hurricane Epsilon 2005 , 85mph, 979 mbar and Hurricane Nicole of 1998 85mph; see also Hurricane Lili 1984 80mph. Hurricane Epsilon 2005 is the longest lasting December storm.
  • Season with most hurricanes: 2005 with 15 Hurricanes (previous record: 12 in 1969)
  • Most major hurricanes hitting the U.S.: 4 in 2005 (previous record: three in 2004). Major hurricanes are category 3+.
  • Most tornadoes spawned: Hurricane Frances, 2004 (123), Hurricane Ivan 2004 (117), Hurricane Beulah 1967, (115), Hurricane Katrina 2005 (30). Hurricane Andrew also was notable for its tornados in the South Miami area.
  • Most Category 5 Hurricanes in one season: 4 in 2005 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) (previous record: two in 1960 and 1961)
  • Most Tropical Storms/hurricanes before August 1: 7 in 2005 (previous record: five in 1997)
  • Most two-year consecutive total Tropical Storms: 2004-2005, 41 (previous record: 32 most recently in 1995-96)
  • Most two-year consecutive total Hurricanes: 2005, 25 (previous record: 21 in 1886-87)
  • Most Two-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2004-2005, 13 (ties record in 1950-51)
  • Most Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Seven (previous record: five in 1954-55)
  • Most Two-Year Consecutive Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls: 2004-2005, Five (previous record: three in 1949-50)
  • Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms: 2003,2004,2005, 57 (previous record: 43 most recently in 2002-04)
  • Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes: 2005, 31 (previous record: 27 in 1886-88)
  • Most Three-Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes: 2003,2004,2005, 16 (ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
  • Deadliest U.S. Hurricane since 1928: Katrina, 2005 (at least 1,300). 2005 had three of the six strongest hurricanes on record: Wilma 882 mb (1st), Rita 897 mb (4th), Katrina 902 mb (6th)
  • Earliest hurricane to strike the United States: Alma struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966.
  • Four hurricanes have existed simultaneously twice: August 22, 1893 and September 25-27, 1998 with Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl as hurricanes. In 1971 there were 5 tropical cyclones simultaneously, but only 2 were hurricanes.
  • Latest hurricane to strike the U. S.: late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
  • Most storm names retired in a single year: 2005, 5 names. Previous record 4 names in 1955, 1995 and, 2004.
  • Only Tropical Storm (e.g. it never was a hurricane) name retired: Allison, 2001. It was a huge rain event and did enough damage to be retired.
  • More Detailed 2008 Florida Hurricane Forecast Information (PDF)