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2007 Hurricane Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal,
Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo,
Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
Science Daily — The U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience
a very active hurricane season, the Colorado State University forecast
team announced today, increasing its earlier prediction for the 2007
hurricane season.
 NOAA satellite image of Hurricane Katrina taken Aug. 28, 2005, as
the storm's outer bands lashed the Gulf Coast of the United States a
day before making landfall and leaving a path of destruction in its
wake. (Credit: NOAA)
The team's 2007 hurricane forecast now anticipates 17 named storms forming in the
Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of the 17 storms are
predicted to become hurricanes, and of those nine, five are expected to
develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5)
with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
No hurricanes made landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2006. The
2006 hurricane season witnessed a total of 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and two
major hurricanes. The 2005 hurricane season, considered unusual by the Colorado
State forecast team, witnessed 27 named storms, 15 hurricanes and seven
intense hurricanes. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9
hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
"We are calling for a very active 2007 hurricane season this year, but not
as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons," said Phil Klotzbach of the
Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "Based on our latest forecast,
the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S.
coastline is 74 percent compared with the last-century average of 52
percent.
"In December and January, we had a weak to moderate El Nino event in
the tropical Pacific Ocean. When you have El Nino conditions during the
hurricane season, it increases vertical wind shear across the tropical
Atlantic and typically results in a weaker tropical cyclone season,"
Klotzbach said. "However, we've seen El Nino conditions dissipate quite
rapidly late this winter, so we do not think that's going to be an
inhibiting factor this year. Also, we have warm Atlantic sea surface
temperatures this year which we've seen just about every year since
1995."
The 2007 hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in
2007 will be 185 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005
witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the
average season.
2007 Hurricane Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix,
Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga,
Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major
hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:
- A 74 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make
landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2007 (the long-term average
probability is 52 percent).
- A 50 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on
the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term
average is 31 percent)
- A 49 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on
the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the
long-term average is 30 percent).
 The team also predicted above-average major
2007 hurricane landfall risk
in the Caribbean.
"We were quite fortunate last year in that we had no hurricane
landfalls," Klotzbach said. "The 2006 season was only the 12th year
since 1945 that the United States witnessed no hurricane landfalls.
Since then, we have had only two consecutive-year periods where there
were no hurricane landfalls - 1981-1982 and 2000-2001."
The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has cautioned against
reading too much into the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 when
Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes
each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused
devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma
in 2005.
"The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural
bounds of hurricane variation," said William Gray, who began forecasting
hurricane seasons at Colorado State 24 years ago. "Following the two
very active seasons of 2004 and 2005, 2006 experienced slightly
below-average activity with no landfalling hurricanes.
"We've had an upturn of major storms since 1995," Gray said. "We
think this upturn of major storms will continue for another 15 or 20
years."
Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense
hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S.
East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the
forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S.
landfall probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual
counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport,
Maine. The Web site, available to the public at
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane, is the first publicly accessible
Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions,
sub-regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected
effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray update the
site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at
Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts.
The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global
oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Niño, sea surface
temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive
hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about
similar trends in future seasons.
 For 2007, Gray and the hurricane forecast team expect continued warm
tropical and north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, prevalent in most
years since 1995, as well as neutral or weak La Nina conditions - a
recipe for greatly enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity. These
factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1952, 1964,
1966, 1995 and 2003 seasons. The average of these five seasons had well
above-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2007 season
will have activity in line with the average of these five years.
Gray does not attribute changes in recent and projected Atlantic
hurricane activity to human-induced global warming.
"Although global surface temperatures have increased over the last
century and over the last 30 years, there is no reliable data available
to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the
globe's seven tropical cyclone basins, except for the Atlantic over the
past 12 years," Gray said. "Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones
have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity
would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts of global
mean temperature change."
2007, Hurricane, Forecast, Season, Florida, Texas, New Orleans,
Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Miami, Palm Beach
2007 Hurricane Names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix,
Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga,
Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy.
Note: This story has been adapted from a news
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