|
2004 Hurricane History |
2005
Hurricane Forecast |
Recommended Hurricane Supplies
Florida Hurricane Season
2004 Hurricane History
THE Florida Hurricane and ATLANTIC HURRICANE
season in year 2004 will be more active than the last year and 2002, but
less active than 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001 hurricane seasons.
Fourteen tropical storms are predicted for the Atlantic Basin between
June 1 and October 30, 2004. From those storms, eight hurricanes are
predicted, three of which will be classified as "intense," or major
hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
Hurricane forecasts do not predict whether a storm will actually reach
land (called landfall). These include only the Atlantic Basin -- the area
encompassing the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
Track the forecasts as they are updated by
Colorado State
University and Dr. Gray and see up-to-the-moment weather maps at
N.O.A.A.
What are the chances of a hurricane actually hitting the East Coast?
A new aspect of atmospheric research involves efforts to predict landfall --
the chance of a hurricane actually reaching land. Net landfall probability
is statistically related to the overall Atlantic basin net tropical cyclone
activity, which is predicted to be 125 percent of the reference, 100
percent. For reference, compare that to 2003 (145 percent), 2001 (132
percent), 1999 (165 percent), 1996 (204 percent), and 1956 (69 percent).
2005 Hurricane Forecast
Though individual hurricane landfall can not be accurately forecast for
an individual year, for those living on the East Coast, including the
Florida Peninsula, there is a 52 percent probability of having a Category 3,
4, or 5 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale; more about this
later) will actually reach land. This might not seem much, but it is greater
than the landfall probability from last century, which was 31 percent. For
the residents of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to
Brownsville, the probability of landfall is slightly less -- 40 percent,
compared to 30 percent last century.
What will the 2004 hurricanes be called?
The names chosen for the hurricanes of the 2004 Atlantic season are Alex,
Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne,
Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie,
and Walter.
Many names are taken from a permanent list that rotates every six years.
About fifty hurricane names have been retired since 1950 because they
resulted in significant property damage or deaths, including Camille (1969),
Agnes (1972), Carmen (1974), Hugo (1989), Diana (1990), Mitch (1998), Floyd
(1999), and Lili (2002). A name can be retired at the request of a country
affected by the storm if it is approved by the Hurricane Committee. It
should be noted that not all hurricanes were named, including some of the
most deadly or damaging storms known to man.
How many hurricanes can we expect during any given hurricane season in
the Atlantic Ocean?
Each year an average of ten tropical storms develop in the Atlantic Ocean,
Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Six of them, on average, will actually
achieve hurricane status. Many of these storms will die out over the ocean.
Over the course of three years, about five hurricanes will strike the U.S.
coastline. Of these five, two will be major hurricanes of Category 3 (see
below) or greater.
HURRICANE FORECASTS --
2004 SEASON
| Prediction |
Average |
| Named tropical storms - 14 |
9.6 |
| Named tropical storm days - 55 |
49.1 |
| Hurricanes - 8 |
5.9 |
| Hurricane days - 30 |
24.5 |
| Intense hurricanes - 3 |
2.3 |
| Intense hurricane days - 6 |
5.0 |
| Hurricane destruction potential* - 85 |
71 |
| Net tropical cyclone activity - 125 |
100 |
| *Hurricane destruction potential measures a
hurricane's potential for wind- and ocean-surge damage. |
Just what is a hurricane?
A hurricane is a tropical storm with winds that have reached a
constant speed of at least 74 mph in the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean
Sea, or Gulf of Mexico. A hurricane's winds blow in a large spiral around a
relatively calm center of extremely low pressure known as the eye of
the storm. Around the rim of the eye, winds may gust to more than 200 mph.
The eye of a storm is usually 20 to 30 miles wide and may extend over 400
miles. The entire storm can be up to 340 miles in diameter, dominating the
ocean surface and lower atmosphere for thousands of square miles.
The dangers of a storm include torrential rains, high winds, and storm
surges. A hurricane can last for two weeks or more over open water and can
follow a path across the entire length of the eastern seaboard, coastal
areas, and barrier islands. All Atlantic and Gulf coastal areas are subject
to hurricanes or tropical storms. Although rarely struck by hurricanes,
parts of the Southwest and Pacific Coast suffer heavy rains and floods each
year from the remnants of hurricanes spawned off Mexico. Islands such as
Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, and Puerto Rico also are subject to
hurricanes.
Is a hurricane the same as a cyclone?
A hurricane is actually one of three kinds of tropical storms, or
cyclones, that circulate over tropical waters. The circulation is
counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. Tropical cyclones are
classified as follows:
Tropical depression. An organized system of clouds and
thunderstorms with a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 38
mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical storm. An organized system of strong thunderstorms with
a defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to
63 knots).
Hurricane. An intense tropical weather system with a
well-defined circulation and maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots)
or higher. In the western Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons.
Similar storms in the Indian Ocean are called cyclones.
Hurricanes are further classified by rank according to how strong their
winds are. A Category 1 hurricane, for example, has winds of 74 mph or less.
A Category 5 storm has winds of 155 mph or greater.
How are hurricanes classified?
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's
present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential
property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane
landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge
values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the
landfall region. Wind speeds are measured using a 1-minute average.
| Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale |
Average Wind (mph) |
Representative Hurricanes |
| Category One |
74 - 95 |
Danny; 1997 |
| Category Two |
96 - 110 |
Bonnie & Georges; 1998 |
| Category Three |
111 - 130 |
Fran; 1995 |
| Category Four |
131 - 155 |
Felix & Opal; 1995 |
| Category Five |
156 + |
Mitch; 1998 |
What do the hurricane warnings mean?
A watch means that hurricane-force winds are possible within 36
hours. A warning means that hurricane-force winds are likely within
24 hours.
How is a hurricane formed?
A tropical ocean and its atmosphere create the right conditions for a
hurricane. Hurricanes draw their energy from the warm surface waters of the
tropics (usually above 27 degrees Celsius, or about 81 degrees Fahrenheit)
and the latent heat of condensation. Powered by heat from the sea, they are
steered by the easterly trade winds and the temperate westerlies,
as well as by their own ferocious energy. Around their core, winds grow with
great velocity, generating violent seas. Moving ashore, they sweep the ocean
inward while spawning tornadoes and producing torrential rain and floods.
When hurricanes move over cold water or over large landmasses, they can die
out quickly because they lose the power of the heat and condensation.
When were the last major hurricanes to hit the U.S. coast?
Although El Niño suppressed hurricane activity in 1997, statistics show that
the period between 1995 and 1997 was the busiest three-year period for
hurricane activity on record. The three-year span generated 39 named
storms, 23 hurricanes (13 of which were intense), and 116
hurricane days. Forecasters believe that this may be the beginning of
decades of increased intense or major hurricane activity.
What were the worst hurricanes to hit the United States?
According to The Federal
Emergency Management Agency, the top five hurricanes, in terms of damage
cost estimates, to hit the U.S. Atlantic region are as follows:
| Hurricane |
Year |
Damage Cost Estimate |
| Andrew |
1992 |
$26.5 billion |
| Hugo |
1989 |
$7 billion |
| Fran |
1996 |
$3.2 billion |
| Opal |
1995 |
$3 billion |
| Frederic |
1979 |
$2.3 billion |
The top five hurricanes in the Atlantic region by number of deaths:
| Area |
Year |
Deaths |
| Galveston, Texas |
1900 |
8,000 |
| Lake Okeechobee, Florida |
1928 |
1,836 |
| Florida Keys and South Texas |
1928 |
600 |
| New England 1938 |
1938 |
600 |
| Florida Keys |
1935 |
408 |
One cautionary note: Because of the intense media attention
focused on the so-called "global warming" phenomenon, it might be tempting
to interpret the recent large upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity as
being in some way related to increased human-induced greenhouse gases such
as carbon dioxide (CO2). Such an interpretation of the recent sharp increase
in Atlantic basin hurricanes since 1995 is not plausible. In fact, tropical
cyclone activity in other global basins has shown a downward trend since
1995. So, while it might make sense to an individual and reducing
human-induced emissions makes sense, there is no scientific basis
correlation between them and hurricane activity.
|
.
